Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 11.028564 12.653392 14.407854 16.439717 18.724531 21.210809 24.117491
2025-04-13 8.129634 10.206229 12.628883 15.650767 19.304797 23.565241 28.892631
2025-04-20 7.082828 9.413357 12.267505 15.994972 20.706414 26.432920 33.885824
2025-04-27 6.263634 8.762523 11.958619 16.305928 22.018467 29.216910 38.913820
2025-05-04 5.489921 8.040015 11.429791 16.208627 22.704698 31.150180 42.868661
2025-05-11 4.813410 7.357972 10.863995 15.972916 23.136772 32.718846 46.374818
2025-05-18 4.334793 6.891711 10.531930 15.997562 23.878500 34.690440 50.469275
2025-05-25 3.975458 6.555552 10.341743 16.185222 24.828605 36.962855 55.055378
2025-06-01 3.613351 6.173515 10.042082 16.172679 25.464206 38.796740 59.082873
2025-06-08 3.264196 5.773528 9.674804 16.017298 25.857512 40.275605 62.640595
2025-06-15 3.023121 5.522033 9.510837 16.149953 26.673238 42.388434 67.195376
2025-06-22 2.883766 5.424700 9.579025 16.642465 28.056327 45.394916 73.195283
2025-06-29 2.621602 5.096981 9.254063 16.491516 28.438720 46.931840 77.095814
2025-07-06 2.265182 4.566855 8.547388 15.658477 27.671466 46.646967 78.172306
2025-07-13 2.149329 4.461259 8.554347 16.017751 28.858144 49.466292 84.200955
2025-07-20 2.034930 4.346507 8.534078 16.323793 29.965257 52.199100 90.198120
2025-07-27 1.872084 4.121714 8.296970 16.228244 30.377146 53.810759 94.441409
2025-08-03 1.705953 3.873167 7.995068 15.991639 30.523703 54.979497 97.993478
2025-08-10 1.589109 3.712618 7.844078 16.016535 31.123191 56.920491 102.890246
2025-08-17 1.501787 3.604723 7.784441 16.204315 32.017444 59.390816 108.762962
2025-08-24 1.398814 3.452804 7.626119 16.191786 32.542113 61.240311 113.642513
2025-08-31 1.289541 3.275652 7.402787 16.036232 32.789099 62.607733 117.733571
2025-09-07 1.218352 3.176722 7.330106 16.169030 33.576387 64.951023 123.599139